What Won’t Change: The Truth About AI

Everyone’s talking about what’s going to change now that generative AI is here. But as Jeff Bezos has said that’s the wrong question to ask. Here is what Bezos has to say about that question (albiet in a different context):

“I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next 10 years?’ And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’

And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. … [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection.

It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, ‘Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,’ [or] ‘I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.’ Impossible.

And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now.

When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”

According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, there are five different levels of needs starting at the lowest level known as physiological needs which include food, water, warmth, rest and air. These needs have existed 100 years ago and still exist now.

Manfred Max-Neef on the other hand gives an alternative development system for basic human needs. Unlike Maslow’s hierarchy of needs which focuses on a hierarchy of psychological needs, Max-Neef talks about needs that are complementary, all of which are necessary to achieve satisfaction.

Max-Neef classifies the fundamental human needs as: subsistence, protection, affection, understanding, participation, recreation (in the sense of leisure, time to reflect, or idleness), creation, identity and freedom. Needs are also defined according to the existential categories of being, having, doing and interacting

Other human needs that won’t change in the next ten years include safety needs such as security and protection, love and belongingness needs such as friendship, intimacy and family, esteem needs such as self-esteem, achievement, respect of others and respect by others, and self-actualization needs such as creativity, problem-solving and acceptance of facts.

And at a fundemental level, these needs and wants are not going to change.

So if you want to know how to improve your business, or where to start a new business, don’t ask “what’s going to change” ask “what’s not going to change”. For example if you’re in the business of Transport, 100 years ago people needed transportation to get to work (subsistence), to travel safely (protection), to visit friends and family (affection), to learn about new places (understanding), to participate in social events (participation), and to enjoy leisure activities (leisure).

Today, people still need transportation for these same reasons. While transportation has become more efficient and faster with technological advancements such as cars, trains and airplanes the fundmental needs haven’t changed. So designing a transport system that’s less safe for example, probably isn’t going to be a success.